Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire - Exact Score

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Germany face Côte d’Ivoire in a World Cup group-stage match, and the market’s 4% implied chance on an exact scoreline points to a very low base rate even before accounting for the usual spread of football outcomes. On the exchange side, this kind of contract is almost always dominated by the “Any Other Score” bucket unless the listed score is unusually aligned with the pre-match goal total and result profile. ESPN’s current match board has Germany as a firm favourite, pricing them around -190 on the moneyline, with the draw at about +370 and Côte d’Ivoire at roughly +475; that is a materially stronger Germany position than a 4% exact-score YES would suggest if the contract is tied to a specific Germany win by a narrow margin.[1]

Historical framing also pushes against high conviction on a single scoreline. The only head-to-head record surfaced in the search data shows one prior meeting between these sides, ending in a two-goal total rather than a broad sample of repeat score patterns, which limits how much direct matchup history can support any one exact result.[2] More generally, exact-score markets usually price the most common football scores—especially 1-0, 1-1, 2-0 and 2-1—well below outright match-winner probabilities because several distinct outcomes can satisfy the broader game thesis without hitting the precise number. That leaves the prediction-market price as a cleaner read on score specificity than on simple winner selection.

The main trading catalysts are late team news, confirmed line-ups and any shift in the market’s total-goals expectation, because these directly affect the chance of a single exact score landing. ESPN’s board already shows a relatively modest goal environment with 2.5 goals priced around -175 on the over side, so any move towards a lower-tempo or more open contest would change the relative appeal of exact scores versus the catch-all alternative.[1] Traders should also watch for official FIFA match-centre updates and pre-match training or selection reports, since this market resolves on regulation time only and remains open if the fixture is postponed until it is completed.[5]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets UK?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.