ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Scotland and Ireland will meet in the ICC Women's T20 World Cup on 13 June 2026. The current prediction-market probability stands at 100%, indicating near-certainty that the match will be completed and produce a decisive result. This settlement window closes on 20 June 2026, allowing five business days post-match for official confirmation via ESPNCricinfo.

Historically, women's T20 internationals between these sides have been competitive but infrequent at World Cup level. Ireland has developed rapidly as a T20 nation over the past five years, though Scotland remains the stronger-ranked side in most recent ICC assessments. The 100% implied probability reflects confidence in match completion rather than a prediction of outcome; weather disruption in June remains a material risk for any UK-based fixture, yet the settlement criteria explicitly treat DLS adjustments and any on-field tiebreak as ordinary wins, removing ambiguity around partial or abandoned matches. Historical abandonment rates for women's T20 World Cup matches are negligible, supporting the high completion probability.

Key variables for traders include squad announcements (expected by April 2026), any late injury withdrawals affecting either team's preparation, and venue confirmation. Ground conditions at the assigned venue will influence team selection and playing strategy. Sportsbook lines, once published closer to the fixture date, should reveal whether traditional bookmakers diverge materially from the current 100% market assessment. Any significant gap between prediction-market settlement probability and conventional betting odds would signal either mispricing of abandonment risk or divergent views on match logistics.

Methodology

We track ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets UK?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.