The Hundred, Women: London Spirit vs Manchester Super Giants

Platform comparison

Market context

The Hundred women’s meeting between London Spirit and Manchester Super Giants was a one-sided fixture on the field, with Manchester Super Giants winning by seven wickets after London Spirit were dismissed for 80 runs. That outcome matters for reading the market now because the crowd-implied 0% YES price is effectively treating the contract as already settled against the London Spirit side, leaving no room for uncertainty unless the result data were materially disputed.[1][3]

Comparable pre-match pricing also points in the same direction: one live score service showed Manchester Super Giants at 68% win probability and London Spirit at 32%, which is a clear favourite/underdog split rather than a genuinely balanced contest.[2] In other words, the prediction-market line is far more extreme than the surrounding analyst-style indicators, but it is not inconsistent with the eventual match report, which confirms a straightforward Manchester win rather than a tie or shared result.[1][3]

For traders, the main catalysts are whether the official scorecard on ESPNcricinfo and the competition’s published result align with the market’s settlement rules, especially around any unusual abandonment, tie, or administrative ruling. Here, the published outcome already appears to be a normal completed match, and the market description says ordinary on-field decisions, including DLS/DRS or a tiebreak if used, count as a win, so the key dependency is simply final result confirmation rather than further sporting developments.[1][3][5]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track The Hundred, Women: London Spirit vs Manchester Super Giants across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.