1. FC Cologne vs. Real Sociedad San Sebastian - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Market context

1. FC Köln host Real Sociedad in a Club Friendly at RheinEnergieStadion, with the exact-score market settling on the full-time result after normal time or any agreed format. For a contract priced at 0% YES on a named scoreline, the obvious baseline is that the field is wider than the market is implying: exact-score friendlies are typically fragmented, low-liquidity contracts where the “Any Other Score” bucket captures most outcomes, especially when there is no strong prior head-to-head pattern to anchor a precise scoreline. The only recorded UEFA meeting between these clubs was Real Sociedad’s 1-0 win over Köln in the 1988/89 UEFA Cup, while broader head-to-head listings show only one Sociedad win and one draw across their historical meetings.[1][5]

Recent form points to a matchup that can produce goals but also awkward trading conditions because both sides have mixed defensive records in their latest competitive runs. ESPN’s recent match logs show Köln finishing their Bundesliga season with results including 5-1, 3-1, 2-2 and 1-1, while Real Sociedad’s La Liga run included 4-3, 2-2, 1-1 and 1-0 scorelines, suggesting a range of plausible totals rather than a single dominant script.[7] That makes analyst consensus, where available from match-centre and H2H pages, more compatible with a broad probability spread than with any one exact score. Prediction-market pricing at 0% YES therefore looks more like a reflection of contract granularity than a claim that a specific outcome is impossible.[4][9]

For traders, the key catalysts are lineup disclosure, any late change to the friendly’s format, and whether either club treats the match as a full-strength tune-up or a rotation exercise. Club friendlies often carry higher uncertainty on substitutions, minutes management and motivation, all of which can move exact-score probabilities more than in league play; the live listings for this fixture also indicate some source inconsistency around timing and availability, so confirming the final kickoff arrangement matters.[2][7][15] The most important market-dependent input is whether either side announces a heavily rotated XI, because that tends to pull probability away from clean favourite scorelines and towards the “Any Other Score” catch-all.[9][13]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track 1. FC Cologne vs. Real Sociedad San Sebastian - Exact Score across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

What are the best prediction markets for UK traders in 2026?

For UKGC-regulated markets: Betfair Exchange (sports, politics) and Smarkets (sports, politics, lower commission than Betfair). For broader global event prediction: Polymarket (deepest liquidity, 0% fee, USDC settlement). For US-regulated option: Kalshi (USD, limited UK payment options). Most serious UK traders use a combination of Betfair for regulated sports and Polymarket for broader markets.