Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| Chengdu Rongcheng FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Wuhan San Zhen FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Chengdu Rongcheng FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Wuhan San Zhen FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Wuhan San Zhen FC O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| Chengdu Rongcheng FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
| Chengdu Rongcheng FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| Wuhan San Zhen FC (-1.5) | 0% |
| Chengdu Rongcheng FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| Wuhan San Zhen FC (-2.5) | 0% |
| O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| O/U 3.5 | 0% |
| O/U 4.5 | 0% |
| O/U 5.5 | 0% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Chengdu Rongcheng FC O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Chengdu Rongcheng FC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Wuhan San Zhen FC O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Chengdu Rongcheng FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Chengdu Rongcheng FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| Wuhan San Zhen FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 0% |
| Wuhan San Zhen FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Wuhan San Zhen FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 0% |
Market context
Chengdu Rongcheng’s meeting with Wuhan San Zhen is the relevant real-world fixture behind this “More Markets” contract, with the teams listed for a Chinese Super League match on 1 August and Chengdu having already taken the corresponding April league meeting 1-0 away from home.[1][11] The market’s current **0% YES** price is far below what comparable football pricing usually implies for a live match-related side market, especially given Chengdu’s stronger season record and superior recent results, but it does align with the possibility that “More Markets” may only resolve if the exchange posts an additional, specific sub-market rather than the match itself.[2][7]
Historical context points towards a Chengdu edge rather than a Wuhan one. Chengdu have been the more consistent side across the last two seasons, while the head-to-head has often been tight: ESPN’s recent meetings show several draws and narrow scorelines, including 2-2, 1-1 and 1-0 results, which is useful when reading any contract tied to goals, margins or team-stat props.[10][15][20] By contrast, Polymarket’s earlier April market for the same pairing was priced near certainty on Chengdu’s win, reflecting a much clearer consensus on the outright result than on any broader “more markets” listing.[2]
Traders should watch for the exchange’s final market set, late team news and whether the fixture is still scheduled as listed, because a cross-platform gap often opens when sportsbook prices, prediction-market implied odds and analyst previews are talking about different underlying events.[3][8] Chengdu’s recent results show they remain productive in league play, while Wuhan’s form has been more uneven, so any movement in auxiliary markets is more likely to come from line-up announcements, rotation or a low-scoring game script than from a major shift in the outright winner view.[7][17]
Methodology
We track Chengdu Rongcheng FC vs. Wuhan San Zhen FC - More Markets across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
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