Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
95% | 5% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
95% | 5% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 29.5 | 95% |
| Spread -10.5 | 93% |
| Spread -13.5 | 91% |
| Spread -16.5 | 89% |
| Spread -14.5 | 88% |
| Spread -17.5 | 86% |
| O/U 35.5 | 85% |
| Spread -20.5 | 81% |
| Spread -21.5 | 80% |
| O/U 31.5 | 77% |
| O/U 33.5 | 77% |
| O/U 37.5 | 75% |
| O/U 41.5 | 75% |
| Spread -24.5 | 73% |
| O/U 39.5 | 73% |
| O/U 43.5 | 68% |
| Spread -23.5 | 68% |
| Spread -27.5 | 63% |
| O/U 45.5 | 63% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 63% |
| Spread -32.5 | 63% |
| Spread -25.5 | 63% |
| Spread -26.5 | 61% |
| O/U 47.5 | 58% |
| Spread -28.5 | 58% |
| Spread -29.5 | 57% |
| Spread -30.5 | 56% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 56% |
| O/U 48.5 | 55% |
| Spread -31.5 | 54% |
| O/U 49.5 | 53% |
| O/U 50.5 | 52% |
| Richmond O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Richmond O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Richmond O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Richmond O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| NC State O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| NC State O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| NC State O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| NC State O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| 1H Spread -15.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -18.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Richmond O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Richmond O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Richmond O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Richmond O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Richmond O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| NC State O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| NC State O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| NC State O/U 38.5 | 50% |
| NC State O/U 41.5 | 50% |
| NC State O/U 44.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| Will Wilson: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| CJ Bailey: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Joshisa Trader: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Davion Gause: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Preston Douglas: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Vander Ploog: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Keenan Jackson: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Victor Snow: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Davion Dozier: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Hunter Provience: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Sean Clarke: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Quanye Veney: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Ashten Snelsire: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| Jamaal Brown: Anytime Touchdown | 50% |
| NC State O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| NC State O/U 36.5 | 50% |
| NC State O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| NC State O/U 42.5 | 50% |
| NC State O/U 45.5 | 50% |
| NC State O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| NC State O/U 37.5 | 50% |
| NC State O/U 40.5 | 50% |
| NC State O/U 43.5 | 50% |
| NC State O/U 46.5 | 50% |
| Richmond O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Richmond O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Richmond O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Richmond O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Richmond O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Richmond O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Richmond O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Richmond O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Richmond O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Richmond O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| NC State O/U 47.5 | 50% |
| NC State 1H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| NC State 1H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| NC State 1H O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Richmond 1H O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Richmond 1H O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| Richmond 1H O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| NC State 1H O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| NC State 1H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| NC State 1H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -19.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| Spread -19.5 | 50% |
| Spread -47.5 | 50% |
| Spread -50.5 | 50% |
| Spread -54.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -21.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -15.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -19.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 31.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| Richmond 2H O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Richmond 2H O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Richmond 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| NC State 2H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| NC State 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| NC State 2H O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| O/U 51.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 49% |
| Spread -48.5 | 49% |
| Spread -33.5 | 46% |
| O/U 55.5 | 45% |
| Spread -36.5 | 45% |
| O/U 57.5 | 43% |
| Spread -35.5 | 43% |
| O/U 53.5 | 41% |
| Spread -41.5 | 40% |
| Spread -38.5 | 39% |
| Spread -39.5 | 39% |
| O/U 61.5 | 35% |
| 1H Moneyline | 35% |
| Spread -34.5 | 34% |
| Spread -42.5 | 34% |
| Spread -44.5 | 33% |
| O/U 63.5 | 32% |
| Spread -51.5 | 31% |
| Spread -37.5 | 30% |
| O/U 67.5 | 29% |
| O/U 69.5 | 28% |
| Spread -40.5 | 26% |
| O/U 59.5 | 23% |
| O/U 65.5 | 14% |
| Richmond vs. NC State | 3% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 95% probability to richmond vs. nc state. In the upcoming college football game between Richmond and NC State, scheduled for September 11 at 7:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "Richmond" if Richmond win the game. This market will resolve …
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $171K.
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- What are the best prediction markets for UK traders in 2026?
- For UKGC-regulated markets: Betfair Exchange (sports, politics) and Smarkets (sports, politics, lower commission than Betfair). For broader global event prediction: Polymarket (deepest liquidity, 0% fee, USDC settlement). For US-regulated option: Kalshi (USD, limited UK payment options). Most serious UK traders use a combination of Betfair for regulated sports and Polymarket for broader markets.
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