Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
95% | 5% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
95% | 5% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 30.5 | 95% |
| 1Q O/U 4.5 | 91% |
| O/U 36.5 | 89% |
| Montana State vs. Nevada | 83% |
| Spread -1.5 | 82% |
| O/U 42.5 | 82% |
| O/U 32.5 | 78% |
| O/U 34.5 | 78% |
| Spread -4.5 | 76% |
| O/U 38.5 | 76% |
| O/U 40.5 | 76% |
| Spread -6.5 | 75% |
| O/U 50.5 | 73% |
| Spread -9.5 | 73% |
| Spread -5.5 | 71% |
| O/U 44.5 | 71% |
| O/U 46.5 | 71% |
| Spread -2.5 | 69% |
| Spread -7.5 | 68% |
| Spread -3.5 | 65% |
| O/U 49.5 | 60% |
| O/U 48.5 | 60% |
| Spread -8.5 | 57% |
| Spread -11.5 | 57% |
| Spread -10.5 | 54% |
| Spread -13.5 | 54% |
| O/U 52.5 | 54% |
| Spread -12.5 | 51% |
| Spread -27.5 | 50% |
| Spread -31.5 | 50% |
| Spread -34.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Nevada O/U 17.5 | 50% |
| Nevada O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Nevada O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Nevada O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Nevada O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Montana State O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Montana State O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Montana State O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Montana State O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Montana State O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Montana State O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Montana State O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Montana State O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| Montana State O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| Montana State O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| Nevada 1H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Nevada 1H O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| Nevada 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Montana State 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Montana State 1H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Montana State 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Montana State 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Montana State 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Montana State 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Nevada 2H O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| Nevada 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Nevada 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Nevada O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Nevada O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Nevada O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| Nevada O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| Nevada O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| O/U 51.5 | 50% |
| Montana State O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| Montana State O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| Montana State O/U 28.5 | 50% |
| Montana State O/U 31.5 | 50% |
| Montana State O/U 34.5 | 50% |
| Nevada 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| O/U 54.5 | 49% |
| O/U 56.5 | 49% |
| Spread -3.5 | 47% |
| Spread -0.5 | 46% |
| Spread -10.5 | 45% |
| Spread -14.5 | 44% |
| O/U 58.5 | 44% |
| O/U 60.5 | 42% |
| Spread -18.5 | 40% |
| Spread -16.5 | 40% |
| Spread -17.5 | 38% |
| Spread -0.5 | 38% |
| Spread -16.5 | 35% |
| Spread -21.5 | 35% |
| O/U 62.5 | 35% |
| O/U 64.5 | 34% |
| O/U 66.5 | 34% |
| Spread -13.5 | 34% |
| O/U 68.5 | 32% |
| Spread -24.5 | 31% |
| O/U 70.5 | 31% |
| Spread -6.5 | 30% |
| Spread -1.5 | 28% |
| Spread -20.5 | 26% |
| Spread -9.5 | 19% |
| Spread -4.5 | 12% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 95% probability to montana state vs. nevada. In the upcoming college football game between Montana State and Nevada, scheduled for September 12 at 10:30PM ET: This market will resolve to "Montana State" if Montana State win the game. This market…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $117K.
Methodology
We track Montana State vs. Nevada across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- What are the best prediction markets for UK traders in 2026?
- For UKGC-regulated markets: Betfair Exchange (sports, politics) and Smarkets (sports, politics, lower commission than Betfair). For broader global event prediction: Polymarket (deepest liquidity, 0% fee, USDC settlement). For US-regulated option: Kalshi (USD, limited UK payment options). Most serious UK traders use a combination of Betfair for regulated sports and Polymarket for broader markets.
%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%2010%2018%20Q%2016%204%2026%2010%20Q%2020%202%2032%206%20Q%2044%202%2038%2010%20Q%2048%204%2054%2018%22%20stroke%3D%22%2322d3ee%22%20stroke-width%3D%224%22%20fill%3D%22none%22%20stroke-linecap%3D%22round%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
and%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%206%2066%20A%2026%2026%200%200%201%2058%2066%22%20fill%3D%22%23E6B98D%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3Ccircle%20cx%3D%2232%22%20cy%3D%2226%22%20r%3D%2222%22%20fill%3D%22%23F5CBA7%22%2F%3E%3Cpath%20d%3D%22M%2010%2026%20A%2022%2028%200%200%201%2054%2026%22%20fill%3D%22%2322d3ee%22%20opacity%3D%220.9%22%2F%3E%3C%2Fsvg%3E){kind=small}
Trade Montana State vs. Nevada on Best Prediction Markets UK
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →