Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
78% | 22% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
78% | 22% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 37.5 | 78% |
| Vanderbilt O/U 23.5 | 78% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 71% |
| O/U 43.5 | 65% |
| Spread -1.5 | 64% |
| Spread -2.5 | 62% |
| 1H Spread -2.5 | 60% |
| 1H Spread -7.5 | 59% |
| Spread -3.5 | 56% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 55% |
| O/U 47.5 | 54% |
| Spread -4.5 | 53% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 53% |
| Spread -5.5 | 51% |
| Spread -17.5 | 51% |
| Arkansas O/U 29.5 | 51% |
| Arkansas 1H O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| Vanderbilt 1H O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| Arkansas vs. Vanderbilt: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 51% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 51% |
| Spread -20.5 | 50% |
| Spread -17.5 | 50% |
| Spread -16.5 | 50% |
| Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| O/U 41.5 | 50% |
| O/U 45.5 | 50% |
| O/U 57.5 | 50% |
| O/U 59.5 | 50% |
| O/U 63.5 | 50% |
| O/U 65.5 | 50% |
| O/U 69.5 | 50% |
| O/U 71.5 | 50% |
| O/U 73.5 | 50% |
| O/U 75.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 1Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas 1H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Arkansas vs. Vanderbilt: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Arkansas vs. Vanderbilt: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas vs. Vanderbilt: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas vs. Vanderbilt: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Arkansas vs. Vanderbilt: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Arkansas O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Vanderbilt O/U 3.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Spread -7.5 | 49% |
| Arkansas Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 49% |
| 1H Spread -4.5 | 49% |
| O/U 49.5 | 48% |
| Arkansas O/U 20.5 | 48% |
| Spread -6.5 | 47% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 47% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 45% |
| O/U 53.5 | 44% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 44% |
| Arkansas O/U 23.5 | 44% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 44% |
| Spread -7.5 | 43% |
| O/U 51.5 | 42% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 42% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 42% |
| Spread -8.5 | 40% |
| Spread -13.5 | 38% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 38% |
| Spread -16.5 | 37% |
| Spread -10.5 | 36% |
| Arkansas vs. Vanderbilt | 33% |
| Spread -1.5 | 33% |
| O/U 55.5 | 33% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 32% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 32% |
| Spread -2.5 | 30% |
| Spread -4.5 | 26% |
| Spread -3.5 | 25% |
| Spread -14.5 | 25% |
| Spread -5.5 | 22% |
| O/U 61.5 | 21% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 21% |
| Spread -6.5 | 19% |
| Spread -20.5 | 18% |
| Spread -10.5 | 14% |
| O/U 67.5 | 13% |
| Spread -13.5 | 10% |
| Spread -14.5 | 8% |
Market context
Arkansas vs. Vanderbilt. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 33% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2026-10-17T23:00:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.
Sports outcome markets resolve from official league data once the contest finishes. Pricing typically tightens through the warm-up window as line-ups, weather, and starting-pitcher data become public, then moves on goals or runs in real time.
Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $150K.
Methodology
This page reviews Arkansas vs. Vanderbilt across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- What are the best prediction markets for UK traders in 2026?
- For UKGC-regulated markets: Betfair Exchange (sports, politics) and Smarkets (sports, politics, lower commission than Betfair). For broader global event prediction: Polymarket (deepest liquidity, 0% fee, USDC settlement). For US-regulated option: Kalshi (USD, limited UK payment options). Most serious UK traders use a combination of Betfair for regulated sports and Polymarket for broader markets.
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