Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
97% | 3% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
97% | 3% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 97% |
| O/U 1.5 | 90% |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim O/U 0.5 | 88% |
| VfB Stuttgart O/U 0.5 | 84% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 82% |
| O/U 2.5 | 73% |
| Both Teams to Score | 73% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 70% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 62% |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim O/U 1.5 | 60% |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 60% |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 58% |
| VfB Stuttgart 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 55% |
| VfB Stuttgart 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 53% |
| VfB Stuttgart O/U 1.5 | 52% |
| O/U 3.5 | 51% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 51% |
| VfB Stuttgart 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 45% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 43% |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 41% |
| VfB Stuttgart 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 37% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 35% |
| O/U 4.5 | 32% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 32% |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim O/U 2.5 | 31% |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 30% |
| VfB Stuttgart O/U 2.5 | 25% |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (-1.5) | 24% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 23% |
| O/U 5.5 | 17% |
| VfB Stuttgart (-1.5) | 16% |
| TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (-2.5) | 11% |
| VfB Stuttgart (-2.5) | 7% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, tsg 1899 hoffenheim vs. vfb stuttgart - more markets stands at 97% likelihood according to current market consensus. More markets for the Bundesliga game, scheduled for September 12 at 9:30 AM ET.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- What are the best prediction markets for UK traders in 2026?
- For UKGC-regulated markets: Betfair Exchange (sports, politics) and Smarkets (sports, politics, lower commission than Betfair). For broader global event prediction: Polymarket (deepest liquidity, 0% fee, USDC settlement). For US-regulated option: Kalshi (USD, limited UK payment options). Most serious UK traders use a combination of Betfair for regulated sports and Polymarket for broader markets.
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