Geneva Open: Casper Ruud vs Mariano Navone

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Casper Ruud and Mariano Navone were due to meet in the Geneva Open semi-finals on 22 May, but the live ATP scoring page now shows Navone winning 7-5, 6-2 and ATP’s match report says the Argentine upset the three-time Geneva champion to reach the final. That makes the contract’s live state highly unusual: prediction-market pricing at 0% YES is far below the result reported by the tour, suggesting either stale odds, a badly lagged market, or a contract that has not yet repriced after settlement-relevant updates. In a normal pre-match setting, Ruud would have been the historical favourite on clay in Geneva, given his title record there and stronger tour profile, but Navone’s clay-court style and recent run to a fourth tour-level final are consistent with the upset outcome already posted by ATP.

For traders, the key watchpoints are no longer performance indicators but confirmation and settlement mechanics. ATP’s Geneva 2026 Friday news story, “Navone upsets three-time Geneva champion Ruud, reaches final”, and the live stats centre both point to Navone advancing, while Tennis TV has published short highlights of the match. The main dependency is whether the contract settles on the official tour result or on any late administrative correction; if the match had been suspended or abandoned, the market’s 7-day window would matter, but the current reports indicate completion with a straight-sets winner. On a cross-platform comparison, bookmaker-style pricing would ordinarily have moved sharply after an ATP-reported upset, whereas a 0% YES prediction-market price implies a major divergence from both the tour feed and the implied match outcome.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.