Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Plovdiv 2: Gabriele Piraino vs Petr Nesterov | 100% |
| Completed Match | 100% |
| Plovdiv 2: Gabriele Piraino vs Petr Nesterov Set 1 Winner | 100% |
| Plovdiv 2: Gabriele Piraino vs Petr Nesterov Set 2 Winner | 100% |
| Plovdiv 2: Gabriele Piraino vs Petr Nesterov Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 100% |
| Plovdiv 2: Gabriele Piraino vs Petr Nesterov Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 100% |
| Plovdiv 2: Gabriele Piraino vs Petr Nesterov Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 100% |
| Plovdiv 2: Gabriele Piraino vs Petr Nesterov Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| Plovdiv 2: Gabriele Piraino vs Petr Nesterov Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 0% |
| Plovdiv 2: Gabriele Piraino vs Petr Nesterov Match O/U 21.5 | 0% |
| Plovdiv 2: Gabriele Piraino vs Petr Nesterov Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 0% |
| Plovdiv 2: Gabriele Piraino vs Petr Nesterov Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 0% |
| Plovdiv 2: Gabriele Piraino vs Petr Nesterov Match O/U 22.5 | 0% |
| Plovdiv 2: Gabriele Piraino vs Petr Nesterov Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 0% |
| Plovdiv 2: Gabriele Piraino vs Petr Nesterov Match O/U 23.5 | 0% |
| Plovdiv 2: Gabriele Piraino vs Petr Nesterov Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 100% chance of plovdiv 2: gabriele piraino vs petr nesterov. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market refers to the tennis match between Gabriele Piraino and Petr Nesterov in the Plovdiv 2, originally scheduled for August 9, 2026 at 11:00AM ET. This market will resolve…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- What are the best prediction markets for UK traders in 2026?
- For UKGC-regulated markets: Betfair Exchange (sports, politics) and Smarkets (sports, politics, lower commission than Betfair). For broader global event prediction: Polymarket (deepest liquidity, 0% fee, USDC settlement). For US-regulated option: Kalshi (USD, limited UK payment options). Most serious UK traders use a combination of Betfair for regulated sports and Polymarket for broader markets.
Trade Plovdiv 2: Gabriele Piraino vs Petr Nesterov on Best Prediction Markets UK
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →