Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
82% | 18% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
82% | 18% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alex de Minaur vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Set 1 O/U 8.5 | 82% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alex de Minaur vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Match O/U 21.5 | 63% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alex de Minaur vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Set 2 O/U 8.5 | 61% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alex de Minaur vs Stefanos Tsitsipas | 56% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alex de Minaur vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Set 1 O/U 9.5 | 56% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alex de Minaur vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Set 2 O/U 9.5 | 55% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alex de Minaur vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Set 2 Winner | 54% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alex de Minaur vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Match O/U 22.5 | 54% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alex de Minaur vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Set 1 Winner | 53% |
| Completed Match | 50% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alex de Minaur vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Set 2 O/U 10.5 | 48% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alex de Minaur vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Match O/U 23.5 | 47% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alex de Minaur vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Total Sets: O/U 2.5 | 42% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alex de Minaur vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Set 1 O/U 10.5 | 33% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alex de Minaur vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 31% |
| Mubadala Citi DC Open: Alex de Minaur vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Set Handicap +/-1.5 | 27% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 82% probability to mubadala citi dc open: alex de minaur vs stefanos tsitsipas. This market refers to the tennis match between Alex de Minaur and Stefanos Tsitsipas in the Mubadala Citi DC Open, originally scheduled for July 27, 2026 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'A…
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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