Haiti vs. Scotland - Exact Score

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Market context

Haiti and Scotland will meet in the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 13 June at 9:00 PM ET. This market settles on the exact final score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalty shoot-outs. The 0% crowd-implied probability reflects the mathematical improbability of predicting any single scoreline among dozens of plausible outcomes; traditional sportsbooks typically do not offer exact-score markets with meaningful liquidity for fixtures between lower-ranked nations, making direct odds comparison difficult. Most prediction markets for exact scores see probability mass distributed across "Any Other Score" rather than specific results.

Haiti currently ranks 88th in the FIFA world rankings, whilst Scotland sits 37th. Their historical record shows limited direct competition; Scotland's qualification for the 2026 World Cup represents their first appearance since 1998, whilst Haiti qualified for the first time since 1974. Comparative group-stage matches between teams of this ranking differential—where one side has substantially greater experience and technical depth—typically produce scorelines favourable to the higher-ranked team, though upsets and narrow defeats remain common enough that no single exact score dominates probability distributions.

Traders should monitor squad announcements from both federations through May 2026, particularly injury updates affecting key players. Scotland's midfield depth and Haiti's defensive organisation will be critical variables. Fixture scheduling within the group stage may also affect team rotation and intensity, particularly if either side has already secured or been eliminated from knockout qualification before this match concludes.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.