Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 75% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 74% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 55% |
| Map 2 Winner | 54% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 52% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 52% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MIBR (-3.5) vs PARIVISION (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: MIBR (-3.5) vs PARIVISION (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 30.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 33.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: PARIVISION (-3.5) vs MIBR (+3.5) | 50% |
| Match Winner | 45% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: PARIVISION (-3.5) vs MIBR (+3.5) | 41% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: PARIVISION (-3.5) vs MIBR (+3.5) | 40% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MIBR (-9.5) vs PARIVISION (+9.5) | 38% |
| Map 1 Winner | 36% |
| Map Handicap: MIBR (-1.5) vs PARIVISION (+1.5) | 30% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: MIBR (-6.5) vs PARIVISION (+6.5) | 27% |
| Map Handicap: PRV (-1.5) vs MIBR (+1.5) | 19% |
Market context
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs MIBR (BO3) - XSE Pro League Group Stage — current market-implied probability: 100%. This market refers to the Counter-Strike Round 4 match between PARIVISION and MIBR in the XSE Pro League Group Stage, initially scheduled for July 4 at 1:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "PARIVIS…
Methodology
We track Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs MIBR (BO3) - XSE Pro League Group Stage across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
Trade Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs MIBR (BO3) - XSE Pro L… on Best Prediction Markets UK
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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