Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| O/U 3.5 | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score | 100% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| Arsenal FC O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Real Betis Seville O/U 0.5 | 100% |
| Real Betis Seville O/U 1.5 | 100% |
| Real Betis Seville O/U 2.5 | 100% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 99% |
| Real Betis Seville (-1.5) | 95% |
| Arsenal FC O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Arsenal FC O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Arsenal FC 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Real Betis Seville 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Real Betis Seville 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Arsenal FC 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Arsenal FC 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Real Betis Seville 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Real Betis Seville 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Real Betis Seville (-2.5) | 3% |
| Arsenal FC (-1.5) | 2% |
| Arsenal FC (-2.5) | 2% |
| O/U 4.5 | 2% |
| O/U 5.5 | 1% |
| Arsenal FC 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 1% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to arsenal fc vs. real betis seville - more markets. More markets for the Club Friendlies game, scheduled for August 5 at 2:30 PM ET.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- What are the best prediction markets for UK traders in 2026?
- For UKGC-regulated markets: Betfair Exchange (sports, politics) and Smarkets (sports, politics, lower commission than Betfair). For broader global event prediction: Polymarket (deepest liquidity, 0% fee, USDC settlement). For US-regulated option: Kalshi (USD, limited UK payment options). Most serious UK traders use a combination of Betfair for regulated sports and Polymarket for broader markets.
Trade Arsenal FC vs. Real Betis Seville - More Markets on Best Prediction Markets UK
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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