Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2Q O/U 7.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 100% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 100% |
| San Jose State 1H O/U 11.5 | 100% |
| San Jose State 1H O/U 13.5 | 100% |
| San Jose State vs. Hawai'i | 84% |
| Spread -1.5 | 82% |
| Spread -2.5 | 76% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 74% |
| Spread -3.5 | 73% |
| Spread -4.5 | 69% |
| Spread -5.5 | 67% |
| Spread -6.5 | 65% |
| Spread -7.5 | 57% |
| O/U 35.5 | 56% |
| Spread -8.5 | 55% |
| O/U 37.5 | 53% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 53% |
| Spread -0.5 | 51% |
| Spread -0.5 | 51% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 51% |
| Hawai'i O/U 3.5 | 51% |
| Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| O/U 69.5 | 50% |
| O/U 71.5 | 50% |
| O/U 75.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 27.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 30.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 10.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i O/U 35.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State 1H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i 1H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i 1H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i 1H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State 2H O/U 11.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State 2H O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State 2H O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i 2H O/U 12.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i 2H O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i 2H O/U 16.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| San Jose State vs. Hawai'i: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State vs. Hawai'i: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| San Jose State vs. Hawai'i: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| San Jose State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Hawai'i Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State vs. Hawai'i: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State vs. Hawai'i: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| San Jose State vs. Hawai'i: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -0.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -1.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -3.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| San Jose State O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| 1H Moneyline | 50% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Spread -10.5 | 48% |
| O/U 39.5 | 44% |
| Spread -13.5 | 40% |
| O/U 45.5 | 37% |
| O/U 47.5 | 35% |
| O/U 41.5 | 34% |
| O/U 43.5 | 34% |
| Spread -14.5 | 33% |
| Spread -16.5 | 30% |
| Spread -20.5 | 29% |
| Spread -17.5 | 28% |
| O/U 51.5 | 28% |
| O/U 63.5 | 27% |
| O/U 65.5 | 27% |
| O/U 53.5 | 26% |
| O/U 49.5 | 17% |
| Spread -1.5 | 14% |
| Spread -2.5 | 14% |
| Spread -3.5 | 13% |
| Spread -4.5 | 13% |
| Spread -5.5 | 12% |
| Spread -6.5 | 12% |
| Spread -7.5 | 11% |
| O/U 55.5 | 9% |
| O/U 57.5 | 8% |
| Spread -10.5 | 6% |
| O/U 59.5 | 6% |
| O/U 61.5 | 5% |
| Spread -13.5 | 4% |
| Spread -17.5 | 3% |
| Spread -20.5 | 3% |
| O/U 67.5 | 3% |
| Spread -14.5 | 2% |
| Spread -16.5 | 2% |
| O/U 73.5 | 2% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 0% |
| 1Q O/U 19.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -0.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -1.5 | 0% |
| 1Q Spread -3.5 | 0% |
Market context
Based on real-money crowd forecasting, san jose state vs. hawai'i stands at 100% likelihood according to current market consensus. In the upcoming college football game between San Jose State and Hawai'i, scheduled for October 4 at 12:00AM ET: This market will resolve to "San Jose State" if San Jose State win …
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $916K.
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- What are the best prediction markets for UK traders in 2026?
- For UKGC-regulated markets: Betfair Exchange (sports, politics) and Smarkets (sports, politics, lower commission than Betfair). For broader global event prediction: Polymarket (deepest liquidity, 0% fee, USDC settlement). For US-regulated option: Kalshi (USD, limited UK payment options). Most serious UK traders use a combination of Betfair for regulated sports and Polymarket for broader markets.
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