Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
92% | 8% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
92% | 8% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 33.5 | 92% |
| O/U 35.5 | 92% |
| O/U 37.5 | 89% |
| O/U 39.5 | 88% |
| Spread -7.5 | 87% |
| O/U 41.5 | 85% |
| Spread -10.5 | 84% |
| Spread -11.5 | 83% |
| Spread -13.5 | 81% |
| O/U 43.5 | 78% |
| Spread -14.5 | 77% |
| 2Q O/U 10.5 | 76% |
| Spread -17.5 | 73% |
| O/U 45.5 | 73% |
| 1Q Spread -2.5 | 73% |
| 3Q Spread -2.5 | 71% |
| O/U 47.5 | 70% |
| Spread -19.5 | 68% |
| 1Q O/U 7.5 | 68% |
| 3Q O/U 7.5 | 68% |
| 2Q O/U 13.5 | 67% |
| Spread -20.5 | 66% |
| Spread -22.5 | 65% |
| O/U 49.5 | 64% |
| 2Q Spread -6.5 | 63% |
| Spread -21.5 | 62% |
| 4Q Spread -2.5 | 61% |
| Spread -23.5 | 57% |
| O/U 51.5 | 57% |
| 2H Spread -17.5 | 57% |
| 1Q Spread -6.5 | 57% |
| Illinois 1H O/U 6.5 | 56% |
| 1Q O/U 10.5 | 55% |
| Spread -24.5 | 54% |
| 3Q Spread -6.5 | 54% |
| 3Q O/U 4.5 | 54% |
| 4Q O/U 12.5 | 54% |
| Illinois O/U 7.5 | 54% |
| Illinois O/U 10.5 | 54% |
| O/U 53.5 | 53% |
| 2Q O/U 16.5 | 53% |
| Illinois O/U 13.5 | 53% |
| Spread -25.5 | 52% |
| 2H Spread -14.5 | 52% |
| Spread -26.5 | 51% |
| 1H O/U 28.5 | 51% |
| 2H Spread -13.5 | 51% |
| 1Q O/U 13.5 | 51% |
| 3Q O/U 10.5 | 51% |
| 1H Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -19.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 25.5 | 50% |
| 1H O/U 31.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -12.5 | 50% |
| 2H Spread -15.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 26.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 29.5 | 50% |
| 2H O/U 32.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -7.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -8.5 | 50% |
| 2Q Spread -11.5 | 50% |
| 2Q O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 3Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 3Q O/U 13.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -4.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -5.5 | 50% |
| 4Q Spread -9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 9.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 15.5 | 50% |
| 4Q O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State O/U 33.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State O/U 36.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State O/U 39.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State O/U 42.5 | 50% |
| Illinois 1H O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Illinois 1H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State 1H O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State 1H O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State 1H O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Illinois 2H O/U 4.5 | 50% |
| Illinois 2H O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Illinois 2H O/U 8.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State 2H O/U 18.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State 2H O/U 20.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State 2H O/U 22.5 | 50% |
| 2H Moneyline | 50% |
| Illinois O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| 1Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 2Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 3Q Moneyline | 50% |
| 4Q Moneyline | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 1H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - 2H | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q3 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score a Touchdown - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q1 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q2 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q4 | 50% |
| Both Teams to Score Points - Q3 | 50% |
| Illinois vs. Ohio State: Total Touchdowns O/U 6.5 | 50% |
| Kickoff or Punt Return Touchdown | 50% |
| Illinois vs. Ohio State: Total Touchdowns O/U 5.5 | 50% |
| Game Goes to Overtime | 50% |
| Pick-Six Scored | 50% |
| Illinois vs. Ohio State: Total Touchdowns O/U 7.5 | 50% |
| Illinois Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Illinois Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Illinois Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Illinois Total Passing Touchdowns: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Illinois Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Illinois Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State Total Passing Yards: O/U 200.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State Total Passing Yards: O/U 225.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State Total Passing Yards: O/U 250.5 | 50% |
| Illinois Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Illinois Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Illinois Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 125.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 150.5 | 50% |
| Illinois Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Illinois Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Illinois Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State Total Rushing Yards: O/U 175.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 375.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 350.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State Total Scrimmage Yards: O/U 400.5 | 50% |
| Illinois 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Illinois 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State 40+ Yard Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Illinois Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Illinois Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Illinois Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State Field Goals Made: O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State Field Goals Made: O/U 1.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State Field Goals Made: O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Illinois Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Illinois Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State Total Receptions: O/U 14.5 | 50% |
| Illinois Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State Total Receptions: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State Total Receptions: O/U 24.5 | 50% |
| Illinois Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Illinois Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Illinois Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State Total First Downs: O/U 19.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State Total First Downs: O/U 21.5 | 50% |
| Illinois vs. Ohio State: Total 4th Down Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Ohio State Total First Downs: O/U 23.5 | 50% |
| Illinois vs. Ohio State: Total Successful Two-Point Conversions O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| Illinois vs. Ohio State: Total Defensive/Special Teams Touchdowns O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| 1H Spread -14.5 | 49% |
| 2H O/U 23.5 | 48% |
| 4Q Spread -6.5 | 48% |
| Spread -27.5 | 47% |
| O/U 55.5 | 47% |
| 1H Spread -15.5 | 47% |
| 2Q Spread -9.5 | 47% |
| 1H Spread -16.5 | 46% |
| Spread -28.5 | 42% |
| O/U 57.5 | 42% |
| 1H Spread -17.5 | 42% |
| Spread -29.5 | 41% |
| Spread -30.5 | 40% |
| 2Q O/U 19.5 | 40% |
| 1Q Spread -7.5 | 39% |
| Illinois O/U 16.5 | 39% |
| O/U 59.5 | 38% |
| Spread -31.5 | 36% |
| Spread -32.5 | 34% |
| 3Q Spread -7.5 | 33% |
| Spread -33.5 | 32% |
| O/U 61.5 | 32% |
| 1H O/U 34.5 | 32% |
| Ohio State O/U 45.5 | 31% |
| Spread -34.5 | 30% |
| 1Q O/U 16.5 | 30% |
| Illinois O/U 19.5 | 28% |
| 2H Spread -10.5 | 27% |
| 4Q Spread -7.5 | 27% |
| O/U 63.5 | 26% |
| 3Q O/U 16.5 | 25% |
| Spread -35.5 | 24% |
| Spread -36.5 | 24% |
| O/U 67.5 | 20% |
| 1Q O/U 19.5 | 20% |
| Spread -38.5 | 19% |
| O/U 65.5 | 19% |
| Spread -41.5 | 14% |
| O/U 69.5 | 14% |
| Spread -42.5 | 13% |
| Spread -44.5 | 12% |
| O/U 71.5 | 12% |
| O/U 73.5 | 10% |
| 1H Moneyline | 10% |
| Spread -45.5 | 9% |
| Spread -48.5 | 7% |
| Illinois vs. Ohio State | 4% |
Market context
Market consensus: 92% chance of illinois vs. ohio state. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. In the upcoming college football game between Illinois and Ohio State, scheduled for September 26 at 12:00PM ET: This market will resolve to "Illinois" if Illinois win the game. Th…
Live Data & Statistics
Live stats load when the match begins. Current market odds are shown above. Trading volume: $144K.
Methodology
Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- What are the best prediction markets for UK traders in 2026?
- For UKGC-regulated markets: Betfair Exchange (sports, politics) and Smarkets (sports, politics, lower commission than Betfair). For broader global event prediction: Polymarket (deepest liquidity, 0% fee, USDC settlement). For US-regulated option: Kalshi (USD, limited UK payment options). Most serious UK traders use a combination of Betfair for regulated sports and Polymarket for broader markets.
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