Shenzhen Leopards vs. Zhejiang Lions

Platform comparison

Market context

Shenzhen Leopards host Zhejiang Lions in a CBA playoff game with the series already leaning heavily one way: Zhejiang won Game 2 by 92-85 to move 2-0 ahead, after earlier results in the matchup also tended to favour the Lions. That makes the market’s 100% implied probability for Zhejiang unusually one-sided, especially for a single basketball game where injury news, rotation changes and home-court scoring swings can still matter. Comparable head-to-head results show Shenzhen have beaten Zhejiang before, including a 109-94 win in April 2026, but the recent playoff form is the cleaner guide for how the contract should be read.

For traders, the main catalysts are straightforward: confirmed team sheets, any late injury or rest news, and whether the CBA schedule changes the venue or timing. Scores24’s preview on 21 May notes Shenzhen are coming into the home game trailing 0-2, while recent match reports on YouTube and other score services confirm Zhejiang’s 92-85 Game 2 win and Barry Brown’s 30-point performance. There is little visible divergence between sportsbook-style previews and the market’s pricing, but the contract’s 100% YES level leaves no room for even a small upset risk, which is notable given playoff basketball’s volatility and the fact the result includes overtime.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Shenzhen Leopards vs. Zhejiang Lions on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.