Beijing Ducks vs. Shanghai Sharks

Platform comparison

Market context

Beijing and Shanghai are set to meet again in the CBA play-offs, with the market still pricing a Beijing win at 0% YES despite the Ducks having home-court context in the recent head-to-head. The series has already swung through several low-scoring, volatile results: Shanghai won 99-88 on 17 May, Beijing responded 87-82 on 15 May, and Shanghai also took the latest listed game 81-66 on 20 May. That record matters because it shows the matchup has been competitive enough for single-game variance to dominate, which makes an outright 0% market quote look much more decisive than the recent results would suggest.

Across comparison sources, there is a clear gap between prediction-market pricing and betting-style consensus. Sofascore and flashscore-style listings treat the fixture as live and unresolved, while sportsbook-facing preview pages have been framing it as a tight play-off contest rather than a near-certain side. The main catalyst for traders is confirmation that the scheduled May 22 game actually tips off and completes as planned: if the play-off calendar slips, the market stays open until a final result is posted, and only a full cancellation would force the 50-50 fallback. Any late team news, venue change, or revised start time would matter more here than in a normal regular-season game because the settlement depends solely on the final score, including overtime.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Beijing Ducks vs. Shanghai Sharks on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.