Granby: Daniel Milavsky vs Duncan Chan

Platform comparison

Market context

Daniel Milavsky faces Duncan Chan in a Granby Challenger match originally set for 13 July 2026, where the contest determines which player advances to the next round. While the prediction market currently implies a 100% probability that Milavsky advances, sportsbooks show a more nuanced view, pricing him at 1/2 odds (decimal 1.50) against Chan’s 11/8 (decimal 2.375) [1][3]. This divergence suggests the prediction market has locked in a near-certain outcome, whereas traditional bookmakers still assign meaningful risk to Chan, reflecting a 30–35% implied chance of victory rather than zero.

Historically, prediction markets reaching 100% implied probability before a match concludes are rare in tennis, where retirements, weather delays, or unforced errors frequently disrupt even dominant favourites. Comparable cases in Challenger events show that even players with strong head-to-head records or superior serve statistics can falter if the match extends beyond two sets, as Milavsky is tipped to do [1]. The 50-50 settlement clause for cancellations or delays beyond seven days further introduces a non-zero risk that the current pricing may not fully account for.

Traders should monitor official ATP Challenger tour updates for any schedule changes, player withdrawals, or weather-related postponements affecting the Granby event. Recent coverage from Tennis Tonic confirms Milavsky as the pick to win in three sets, but no definitive confirmation of match completion has been issued as of 15 July 2026 [1]. Any announcement delaying the match beyond the seven-day window would trigger the 50-50 resolution, undermining the current 100% YES pricing.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.