Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
45% | 55% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
45% | 55% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Kurt Kitayama | 45% |
| Scottie Scheffler | 42% |
| Tom Kim | 35% |
| Jake Knapp | 30% |
| Maverick McNealy | 25% |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 25% |
| Keith Mitchell | 20% |
| Jackson Koivun | 20% |
| Corey Conners | 20% |
| Ben Kohles | 19% |
| Jordan L. Smith | 18% |
| Sung-Jae Im | 18% |
| Mac Meissner | 18% |
| Christiaan Bezuidenhout | 18% |
| Pierceson Coody | 17% |
| Jackson Suber | 17% |
| Doug Ghim | 17% |
| Benjamin James | 17% |
| Sam Stevens | 17% |
| Casey Jarvis | 17% |
| Taylor Moore | 17% |
| Max Homa | 16% |
| Johnny Keefer | 16% |
| Rasmus Neergaard-Petersen | 16% |
| Michael Kim | 16% |
| Brian Harman | 16% |
| Max McGreevy | 16% |
| Tony Finau | 15% |
| Gary Woodland | 14% |
| Michael Brennan | 14% |
| Max Greyserman | 14% |
| Davis Thompson | 14% |
| Ricky Castillo | 14% |
| Beau Hossler | 14% |
| John Parry | 14% |
| Andrew Putnam | 14% |
| Denny McCarthy | 14% |
| Zac Blair | 14% |
| Sudarshan Yellamaraju | 13% |
| William Mouw | 13% |
| Kevin Yu | 13% |
| Mackenzie Hughes | 13% |
| Zach Bauchou | 13% |
| Keita Nakajima | 13% |
| Taylor Pendrith | 12% |
| Steven Fisk | 12% |
| Emiliano Grillo | 12% |
| Rico Hoey | 12% |
| Lee Hodges | 12% |
| Takumi Kanaya | 12% |
| Aldrich Potgieter | 11% |
| Lucas Glover | 11% |
| Jesper Svensson | 11% |
| Seamus Power | 11% |
| Austin Smotherman | 11% |
| Kristoffer Ventura | 11% |
| Tom Hoge | 11% |
| Kevin Roy | 11% |
| Joel Dahmen | 11% |
| Brandt Snedeker | 11% |
| Stephan Jaeger | 10% |
| Preston Stout | 10% |
| Hao-Tong Li | 10% |
| Thorbjorn Olesen | 10% |
| Billy Horschel | 10% |
| Ze-Cheng Dou | 10% |
| Matt Kuchar | 10% |
| Chris Kirk | 10% |
| Austin Eckroat | 10% |
| Patrick Fishburn | 9% |
| A.J. Ewart | 9% |
| Garrick Higgo | 9% |
| Chad Ramey | 9% |
| David Lipsky | 9% |
| Patrick Rodgers | 8% |
| Adrien Dumont De Chassart | 8% |
| Matthieu Pavon | 8% |
| Nick Dunlap | 8% |
| Karl Vilips | 8% |
| Neal Shipley | 8% |
| David Skinns | 8% |
| Aaron Wise | 8% |
| Chandler Phillips | 8% |
| Lanto Griffin | 8% |
| Erik Van Rooyen | 7% |
| Luke Clanton | 7% |
| Trace Crowe | 7% |
| Mark Hubbard | 7% |
| Adam Hadwin | 7% |
| Ryder Cowan | 6% |
| Gordon Sargent | 6% |
| Pontus Nyholm | 6% |
| Hayden Springer | 6% |
| Harry Higgs | 6% |
| Vince Whaley | 6% |
| Luke List | 5% |
| Cameron Champ | 5% |
| Jimmy Stanger | 5% |
| Jason Day | 0% |
| S.Y. Noh | 0% |
Market context
Market consensus: 45% chance of pga tour: 3m open top 20. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player finishes in the top 20 at the 2026 3M Open tournament, including ties. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". If final …
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
Trade PGA Tour: 3M Open Top 20 on Best Prediction Markets UK
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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