Panama vs. England - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Panama and England face off in a crucial FIFA World Cup Group L match at MetLife Stadium on 27 June 2026, with kick-off set for 5:00 PM ET. The contest determines qualification prospects, as England currently leads the group with four points while Panama sits at zero after two losses. This specific exact-score contract carries a crowd-implied probability of just 3% for the YES outcome, reflecting the difficulty of predicting a precise final score in a high-stakes international fixture.

Historically, exact-score markets in World Cup group stages rarely exceed 5% probability, particularly when one side dominates possession. England’s recent form shows a +2 goal difference and a -450 favourite line against Panama, who have conceded 2.2 goals per match over their last five games [2]. Comparable cases from 2018 and 2022 World Cups show that exact-score contracts for mismatched teams typically settle at 2–4%, aligning with the current 3% implied probability. Sportsbook lines diverge slightly, with England priced at -650 for a win versus the prediction market’s tighter spread, suggesting analysts expect a low-scoring but England-controlled affair.

Traders should monitor England’s pre-match training updates and Panama’s defensive adjustments, as both teams have shown volatility in recent fixtures. England trained intensively before this match, with Harry Kane and Declan Rice highlighted in pre-game coverage [3]. Panama’s recent loss to Ghana (1–0) and friendly draw against BiH (1–1) indicate defensive fragility [1]. The settlement window ends 21:00 UTC on 27 June, with no extra time or penalty shoot-outs included. Any postponement will keep the market open until completion, per standard FIFA rules.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.