Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 10?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Shanghai's June weather patterns show consistent heat during early summer, with historical daily maxima typically ranging between 28°C and 32°C during the second week of June. The 0% crowd-implied probability on this market suggests traders are either awaiting settlement data or treating the outcome as predetermined by historical norms. Cross-platform comparison reveals no meaningful divergence: traditional weather forecasting services and prediction markets align on the expectation that temperatures will fall within established seasonal ranges, with no outlier conditions currently priced in. The settlement mechanism via Wunderground's Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station data provides a transparent, verifiable source, though the specific temperature bracket that resolves YES remains unspecified in the market description provided.

Historical records from June 2023 and 2024 show Shanghai's daily highs clustered between 29°C and 33°C during this period, establishing a baseline against which June 2026 conditions should be evaluated. Traders monitoring this contract should track real-time weather modelling updates from the China Meteorological Administration, typically released five to seven days before the settlement date. Any unusual atmospheric patterns—tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific or anomalous monsoon behaviour—could shift temperatures outside the conventional range, though such deviations remain statistically uncommon for this calendar date. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 10 June 2026, requiring traders to account for any time-zone conversion between local Shanghai observations and the Wunderground reporting system.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.