Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Israel is due to hold parliamentary elections on 27 October 2026, and the market pays out on the individual formally sworn in as prime minister afterwards. The crowd price of 37% implies a contest that is still open rather than a near-certainty. That is broadly in line with Israel’s recent history: coalition arithmetic has repeatedly overridden raw vote shares, and several elections have ended with no durable majority. Britannica notes that the 2026 contest is expected to feature Benjamin Netanyahu, Naftali Bennett and Gadi Eisenkot among the main players, while the broader system remains highly fragmented.

That fragmentation is why cross-platform readings diverge. Polymarket has framed Bennett as a narrow trader leader after his alliance with Yair Lapid, suggesting some market participants think a reconfigured opposition bloc could still assemble a governing majority. By contrast, recent analysis has continued to treat Netanyahu as the central reference point because he remains the incumbent and the best-known coalition builder, even if his path depends on post-election bargaining. Comparable elections have shown that polls and seat counts can shift late, while the decisive question is usually not who wins the most votes but who can secure 61 Knesset seats and a viable coalition.

Watch for formal alliance announcements, candidate slates, and any change in the election timetable, as well as polling around smaller parties near the threshold. Gadi Eizenkot’s alignment, the strength of Bennett-Lapid coordination, and whether Avigdor Lieberman or other swing players back a bloc could all move expectations quickly. For settlement, the key event is the swearing-in of a new prime minister, not any caretaker or interim arrangement, so protracted coalition talks would keep the market unresolved well past election day.

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Methodology

We track Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.