Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Ships are effectively barred from passing through the Strait of Hormuz, with daily transits near zero against a normal baseline of roughly 60 vessels. The strait remains closed following a brief reopening on 21 April 2026 that collapsed the next day, leaving commercial shipping suspended amid ongoing conflict with Iran. Recent data shows five of eight inbound vessels disabling AIS, with Windward reporting a "dark, sanctioned, Iranian-linked" traffic profile, confirming the route is currently unusable for standard trade.

Historical patterns frame the current 42% implied probability as highly optimistic. Previous closures during the Iran war saw traffic drop to under 10% of normal volumes for weeks, and the strait has been near a standstill since March, with tankers—normally 50–60% of traffic—virtually absent. NBC News notes that President Trump has declared a naval blockade against Iran, stipulating the strait’s reopening as a prerequisite for any ceasefire, yet peace negotiations show minimal progress, suggesting a return to 60 daily transits by July is unlikely without a major geopolitical shift.

Traders must monitor Trump’s naval blockade announcements and any ceasefire negotiations with Tehran, as these are the primary catalysts for reopening. Reuters reports that Iran has warned ships to keep to its waters, while Iranian media implies mines may be laid in the strait, further complicating transit. IMF PortWatch data, which resolves this market, will only count ships it reports, meaning even if some vessels alter GPS tracking to pass, they may not trigger a "Yes" outcome unless officially logged in the 7-day moving average.

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Methodology

This page reviews Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.