Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event in question is whether any listed head of state or government will be permanently removed from office before the end of 2026, excluding Viktor Orbán. With the crowd-implied probability at 0% for a “Yes” outcome, the market effectively treats this as a settled contract, suggesting no credible near-term threats to the power of leaders such as Trump, Putin, Xi, Netanyahu, or Starmer. This stance mirrors the historical pattern where permanent removals are rare and typically stem from catastrophic scandals, wars, or electoral defeats rather than routine political friction.

Historically, comparable cases like the impeachment and removal of Andrew Johnson or the resignation of Richard Nixon involved extraordinary circumstances that do not currently apply to the listed leaders. In contrast, recent provisional transfers of power, such as Yoon Suk Yeol’s impeachment suspension, were temporary and did not qualify as permanent removals, reinforcing the market’s low probability assessment. The absence of credible threats to these leaders’ positions aligns with analyst consensus, which sees no immediate risks to their tenure.

Traders should monitor scheduled elections, such as Hungary’s April 2026 result that confirmed Orbán’s defeat, and any formal announcements of resignation or removal. Recent news from Perplexity highlights that Orbán’s “Yes” outcome is at 100% following his election loss, leaving no actionable angles for other leaders. The settlement window ends on 31 December 2026, so any permanent removal must occur before this date to resolve the market. With odds at -6250 for Gustavo Petro and -144 for Miguel Díaz-Canel on Oddschecker, sportsbook lines diverge slightly from the prediction market’s 0% probability, but the consensus remains that no leader will be permanently removed before 2027.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.