Jerome Powell departs as Fed Chair by 2026?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Jerome Powell has already ceased to be Fed Chair under the new leadership timetable, but this contract still matters because it settles only when he actually vacates the role, not when a successor is named or the term end is scheduled. The market is currently at 0% YES, which is consistent with the event already having been priced as effectively complete on this date range. In comparable Fed succession cases, prediction markets tend to move only when there is a formal resignation, Senate confirmation of a replacement, and a clear handover date; absent that combination, implied probabilities can lag even when analysts regard the transition as near-certain.

The key catalysts were always official communications from the White House and Senate, plus any Fed notice on the exact switchover. Brookings reported that Kevin Warsh was confirmed on 13 May 2026 to succeed Powell once his second four-year term as chair expired on 15 May, while Reuters and other recent reports put the transition on that timetable. That matters for contract interpretation, because the settlement trigger is actual vacating of the chair, not an announcement or a future-dated expiry. On cross-platform pricing, the 0% prediction-market read sits alongside what would normally be an effectively certain sportsbook-style line, leaving little room for disagreement unless the handover date slips or Powell remains in place temporarily.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

We track Jerome Powell departs as Fed Chair by 2026? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.