Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by 2026?

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Market context

The Senate would need to clear a reconciliation bill before 11.59pm ET on 30 May for this market to settle Yes, and the current 0% crowd price is far below the broader reporting on the bill’s progress. Congress has already adopted the budget resolution that unlocked the process, and Senate committees have released text for a package projected by CBO to add about $72 billion in direct spending over ten years. In comparable budget-reconciliation episodes, once identical budget resolutions were adopted, the binding question was not whether a bill existed but whether leaders could keep Republicans aligned through committee mark-up, floor timing and any House-Senate differences.

For traders, the key catalysts are the legislative calendar and any sign of leadership discipline, not policy debate. The House cleared the resolution on 29 April, committees were instructed to produce recommendations by 15 May, and reporting from Ballotpedia on 7 May said President Trump wanted approval before 1 June, which leaves only a narrow window. Senate consideration would still require a floor vote and simple-majority passage, and any delay in committee text, scoring disputes, or a last-minute amendment fight could push action beyond the settlement date. There is no obvious sportsbook analogue for this contract, so the main comparison is between the 0% market price and analyst and news-flow consensus that a bill remained plausible, though tightly timed, as of late May.

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Methodology

This page reviews Will the Senate pass a reconciliation bill by 2026? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.