Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Platform comparison

Market context

Israelis will vote for the 26th Knesset on 27 October 2026, with the next Prime Minister formally appointed and sworn in shortly thereafter. This market currently implies a 39% chance that the outcome will be a specific candidate, a figure that diverges meaningfully from analyst consensus, which increasingly views Benjamin Netanyahu as vulnerable despite his Likud party leading in polls. While sportsbook lines often treat Netanyahu as the default frontrunner, recent polling suggests Naftali Bennett and former IDF Chief Gadi Eisenkot are now considered more suitable by the public, with Bennett at 46% suitability and Eisenkot at 44%, compared to Netanyahu’s 41% [2].

Historically, Israeli Prime Ministerial transitions following contentious elections have frequently favoured coalition builders over poll leaders, as seen when Ehud Barak or Ariel Sharon secured power despite not topping initial vote counts. The current 39% probability reflects uncertainty about whether Netanyahu’s entrenched alliances with religious and far-right parties like Shas and Jewish Power will hold if his personal corruption trial intensifies or if the unified Arab list gains unexpected leverage [1]. Traders should monitor the Likud primary schedule, where Netanyahu is set to gain unprecedented control over the party slate, potentially solidifying his base but also alienating moderate voters [6].

Key catalysts include the April 26 alliance announcement between Bennett’s Together Party and Yesh Atid, which reshapes the opposition landscape, and any legislative moves to call the election earlier than October [3]. The opposition’s strategy of rejecting Netanyahu rather than focusing on peace processes remains a critical variable, as noted in recent French opinion analysis [4]. With the settlement window ending in December 2026, the market will resolve immediately if an early election is called, making the timing of the Knesset’s next bill a primary dependency for traders [5].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

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How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.