Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?

Platform comparison

Market context

Ships are currently unable to pass through the Strait of Hormuz as commercial traffic remains suspended following Iranian attacks on vessels and a US-declared naval blockade. The strait, which normally handles over 80 daily transits including tankers and cargo ships, has been effectively closed for weeks, with recent data showing transits dropping from 35 to just 12 in a single day while inbound vessels disable AIS systems[1][10]. This real-world shutdown underpins the market’s 8% implied probability that transit calls will return to the required threshold of 60 by July 7, 2026.

Historical precedents suggest such closures rarely resolve quickly without direct geopolitical intervention, as seen when the strait previously halted for weeks during the Iran war, pushing oil prices up by over 30%[2][3]. Comparable cases indicate that normal traffic levels are unlikely to return this year unless ceasefire negotiations yield concrete progress, which remains absent despite President Trump’s stipulation that reopening is a prerequisite for peace[3]. The divergence between sportsbook lines, which often lag on geopolitical events, and the prediction market’s low 8% probability reflects analyst consensus that the blockade will persist through the settlement window[5].

Traders should monitor IMF PortWatch publications for the 7-day moving average of transit calls, as this is the sole resolution trigger, alongside any sudden announcements regarding US-Iran peace talks or naval blockade adjustments[7]. Recent reporting confirms that shipping traffic remains at less than 10% of normal volumes, with most movements outbound rather than inbound, reinforcing the likelihood of continued disruption[2][4]. The key dependency is whether Iran lifts tolls and allows safe passage, a shift that has not occurred since the February 28 attacks initiated the current closure[3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.