Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed to commercial shipping, with daily transit numbers for non-Iranian vessels dropping to single digits since mid-March 2026, a stark fall from the pre-crisis average of over 153 ships per day[2][3]. Although a ceasefire between the US and Iran took effect on 8 April, traffic has recovered only partially; by mid-June, crossings reached 42.5% of normal peacetime levels, averaging 28 vessels over the last five days[5]. The current 57% implied probability that traffic will return to normal (defined as a 7-day moving average of 60+ transits) by December 2026 reflects cautious optimism that the June 14 memorandum of understanding, which mandates toll-free passage for 60 days, will accelerate recovery despite lingering technical hurdles like mine clearance[5][6].

Historically, such chokepoints recover slowly after conflict; the 95% traffic diminution since the conflict’s onset suggests that reaching 60 daily transits is a significant threshold, not merely a return to baseline[4]. Traders should monitor the expiration of the 60-day toll-free arrangement in late August and the progress of mine-clearing operations, which the US-Iran deal acknowledges could delay full restoration[6]. A recent rebound to 25 crossings on 18 June, the strongest daily surge in two months, offers a positive signal but remains well below the 60-vessel target required for market resolution[7]. Key catalysts include any formal announcements from Iran regarding mine clearance completion and updates from IMF Portwatch on the 7-day moving average, which will determine if the threshold is breached before the settlement window closes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.