Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The market is effectively asking which current leader will be permanently out of office before 1 January 2027, with Orban excluded, and the crowd is pricing that at **0% YES**. That is a notably firmer line than the broader leader-exit contracts on rival venues: Kalshi’s comparable “Which leaders will leave office this year?” market has been quoting **double-digit probabilities** on some candidates, such as Ali Khamenei at **53%**, while Polymarket’s leadership-change slate has shown **roughly 25%** on its most active Iran leadership-change market. The gap suggests this contract is being read as a much harder event than the headline “leader change” theme elsewhere, especially once temporary suspensions, resignations taking effect later, or caretaker arrangements are excluded.[2][3][4]

Historically, markets on top-level political exits tend to move only when there is a clear legal or health trigger, rather than general pressure or speculation. Recent comparable cases on prediction venues have also treated office-holding very narrowly: Polymarket’s leadership market archive shows a completed “No” outcome on one leader-exit contract, while Kalshi states that only a person no longer holding office in any capacity counts, excluding temporary absences or delegations of duty.[1][4] On that framing, a zero-implied probability usually signals that traders see no credible near-term pathway to a permanent vacancy, not that political risk is absent in the abstract.

For a trader, the main catalysts are formal succession events, court rulings, parliamentary votes, emergency removals, and any resignation that is immediately effective, because announcements alone do not settle this market. The most relevant watchlist is the office-holder’s calendar: election timetables, budget or confidence votes, party congresses, and health-related pauses can all matter only if they end in permanent departure before year-end. The recent market commentary on Khamenei on Kalshi shows how quickly these contracts can reprice when age, health, or elite succession speculation becomes more concrete, but until there is an official vacancy the contract can stay pinned near zero.[2][4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.