Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is whether Israel and Hamas formally announce a second-phase ceasefire agreement before the market’s deadline. The current crowd price of **65% Yes** is broadly in line with the idea that Phase 1 created a negotiating framework, but it still leaves substantial doubt because the harder Phase 2 issues — wider Israeli withdrawal, Hamas disarmament, and Gaza’s post-war governance — are exactly where talks have repeatedly stalled.[1][2][4]

Past ceasefire rounds show why this contract trades below certainty even after an initial deal. In both the 2025 and 2026 Gaza ceasefire frameworks, the first phase was relatively straightforward compared with the later stages, and reporting has repeatedly shown that Phase 2 either slipped beyond its intended start date or remained blocked by disputes over sequencing and enforcement.[4][5][7] That makes the market less about whether talks continue than whether they produce a public, mutual written commitment; analyst commentary from policy groups has treated the next stage as plausible but contingent on hostages, security guarantees, and mediation pressure, which supports a mid-range rather than near-certain probability.[2][10][17]

The main catalysts are official statements from Israel, Hamas, the US, Qatar, and Egypt, plus any announced negotiation calendar or mediation session that narrows the gap on the core sticking points.[1][3][12] Traders should watch for confirmation that talks have moved beyond framework discussions into a text that covers demilitarisation, a technocratic administration for Gaza, and a staged Israeli redeployment, because those elements are the usual precondition for a Phase 2 announcement.[2][3][6][14] Recent coverage has also highlighted how fragile the process remains: reporting in early 2026 said the second phase had been announced in principle but then stalled amid renewed violence and disagreement over Hamas disarmament, which explains why sportsbook-style pricing and prediction-market pricing can diverge if one venue leans more on diplomatic signalling than on a strict signed-agreement standard.[1][3][12]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.