Colombia Presidential Election 1st round winner?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Colombia will hold its presidential election on 31 May 2026, with a potential runoff scheduled for 21 June should no candidate secure an outright majority in the first round. The market resolves to the candidate receiving the most valid votes in that initial ballot, regardless of whether they clear the 50% threshold. The 0% implied probability on the YES outcome reflects the structural reality of Colombian electoral law: since 1991, first-round victories have been exceptionally rare, with most contests proceeding to a second round. Only candidates polling above 40% historically avoid runoffs, and even then, the requirement for an absolute majority has consistently forced two-round contests.

The Colombian electoral calendar and candidate registration deadlines will shape trader positioning through late 2025 and early 2026. Current frontrunners include Vice President Francia Márquez and former finance minister Alberto Carrasquilla, though the field remains fluid ahead of formal candidacy declarations. Recent polling from firms including Invamer and CNC has shown no single candidate approaching 50%, reinforcing market expectations of a runoff scenario. Traders should monitor campaign announcements, coalition formations, and any shifts in turnout expectations, as abstention rates significantly influence first-round vote concentration. The resolution deadline of 31 December 2026 provides ample time for official results confirmation, though Colombia's electoral authority typically announces preliminary results within days of voting.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.