Will 2026 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

Ships are currently blocked from moving outbound through the Strait of Hormuz, with zero commercial vessels verified to have crossed the choke point over the past 72 hours. This severe bottleneck, which includes a total absence of crude oil tankers, represents an extreme restriction on global maritime traffic. The market’s 46% implied probability for any transit by July 31, 2026, reflects uncertainty about whether the recent US–Iran agreement will successfully reverse this stagnation before the settlement window closes.

Historically, the strait sees over 30,000 vessels annually, with daily oil volumes exceeding 20 million barrels, making the current silence a stark anomaly. Comparable disruptions occurred in February 2026 after attacks on commercial ships, yet traffic typically resumed once security improved. The divergence between sportsbook lines, which often price geopolitical stability higher, and the prediction market’s cautious 46% suggests analysts are weighing the risk that the US naval blockade lift, mandated by 19 July, may face delays or that toll negotiations could stall resumption.

Traders must monitor the 19 July deadline for the US to lift its naval blockade of Iranian ports, as guaranteed by the 17 June memorandum of understanding. CNN reports that 25 commercial vessels traversed the strait on 25 June, marking the highest volume since April, but this surge followed a specific agreement rather than sustained normalcy. The critical dependency is whether the 60-day toll-free window, intended to facilitate new arrangements, will prevent Iran from imposing fees that could again deter transit. Any announcement confirming the blockade lift or toll resolution will be the primary catalyst for a shift in odds.

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Methodology

This page reviews Will 2026 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

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On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.