MLB: Highest ABS Challenge Success Rate (Team)

Platform comparison

Market context

The market tracks which MLB team achieves the highest percentage of successful Automated Ball-Strike (ABS) challenges during the 2026 regular season, with a tie-breaker favouring more total wins or alphabetical order. Currently, the crowd-implied probability sits at 36% for the "YES" outcome, suggesting a moderate expectation that a specific team will dominate this metric before the settlement window closes on 11 October 2026.

Historical data from the system’s 2025 Triple-A debut and 2026 Spring Training indicates challenge success rates hover between 54% and 61%, with early regular-season figures showing Boston Red Sox at 47.6% and Chicago Cubs at 43.5% in challenge won rates [8]. These comparable cases frame the current 36% probability as a conservative baseline, given that team strategies vary significantly in challenge aggression; teams like the Cubs have demonstrated higher efficiency (67.8% success on four challenges) despite lower volume, suggesting that a high won% is achievable without leading in total attempts [8].

Traders should monitor weekly ABS tracker updates for shifts in team challenge strategies and any rule adjustments regarding retained successful challenges, as each team begins with two challenges per game [3]. Recent reporting confirms that 1.4% of all pitches were challenged in spring training, a figure consistent with Triple-A data, while opening games saw teams achieve a 61.3% success rate on 31 challenges [4][6]. Analyst consensus diverges from the 36% market line, with some sportsbooks pricing the leading team’s dominance higher due to the Cubs’ early efficiency spike, whereas others remain cautious about the volatility of challenge retention rules over a full season [2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.