# of views of next MrBeast video on day 1?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

MrBeast's next YouTube upload will accumulate a measurable view count within its first 24 hours, with the current market pricing a relatively low probability (18% implied) for the highest bracket outcomes. The settlement hinges on YouTube's public view counter at the 24-hour mark following publication, with no resolution occurring until that full period elapses.

Historical performance data shows MrBeast's recent uploads consistently exceed 50 million views within 24 hours, with several flagship releases surpassing 100 million. His December 2024 video "I Gave Away $1,000,000" accumulated approximately 80 million views in the first day, whilst his "Squid Game" recreation series typically performs in the 60–90 million range. This track record suggests the current 18% probability for top-tier brackets may undervalue his baseline audience engagement, though view velocity does fluctuate based on content category, upload timing, and competing platform events. The market's conservative pricing could reflect uncertainty around upload timing within the settlement window or potential shifts in viewer behaviour by mid-2026.

Traders should monitor MrBeast's upload schedule closely, as the market only resolves if a video posts before 30 June 2026. Recent announcements regarding his production pipeline—including his ongoing "MrBeast Gaming" channel expansion and collaborations—may influence content release cadence. YouTube algorithm changes and seasonal viewership patterns heading into summer 2026 represent secondary variables affecting first-day performance, though his established audience loyalty has historically insulated him from broader platform volatility.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets UK?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.