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What will be the top US Netflix show this week?

How the prediction-market book is pricing "What will be the top US Netflix show this week?" right now, with a side-by-side platform comparison and zero-fee CTAs.

The Hawk: Season 1 97% Show A 50% Show B 50% Show C 50% Volume: $137K Liquidity: $75K Closes: 21 Jul 2026
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What will be the top US Netflix show this week?

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets UK) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
 97% 3% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle View on Polymarket →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
 97% 3% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain View on Polymarket →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
 — — Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD View on Polymarket →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
 — — 2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR View on Polymarket →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
 — — Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) View on Polymarket →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
The Hawk: Season 197%
Show A50%
Show B50%
Show C50%
Show D50%
Show E50%
Show F50%
Show G50%
Other50%
Little House on the Prairie: Season 13%
I Will Find You: Limited Series1%
Worst Neighbor Ever: Season 10%
Quarterback: Season 30%
The Ultimatum: Marry or Move On: Season 40%
Dark Winds: Season 40%
Avatar: The Last Airbender: Season 20%
Sullivan's Crossing: Season 40%
Salish & Jordan Matter: Season 20%

Market context

Market consensus: 97% chance of what will be the top us netflix show this week?. Prediction markets aggregate real capital to produce this probability signal. Netflix is expected to update its Top 10 TV shows list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, July 21, 2026, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday). …

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
How does resolution work?
Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
What does Polymarket cost to trade?
Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
How reliable are the quoted odds?
The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Emma RobertsEmma RobertsFinancial JournalistandSarah MitchellSarah MitchellPolitical Markets Writer

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