"The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Disney’s next Star Wars film opens over the Memorial Day frame, and the market is pricing a strong but not assured domestic start. The contract’s 80% YES implies the crowd thinks a four-day opening above the relevant threshold is the base case, but that is still below some recent analyst-style estimates. Box Office Theory has been tracking the film in a wide $86m to $109m four-day range, while Deadline-linked reporting has pointed to roughly $80m on studio tracking; that spread matters because the market is effectively sitting between a cautious studio line and a more bullish forecast community. For context, that would put it ahead of several recent franchise disappointments, but not in the same bracket as the biggest holiday launches of the current superhero era.

For traders, the key catalysts are not reviews but the final pre-release tracking updates, walk-up demand over the holiday weekend, and whether the film’s IMAX and premium-format share holds up against other late-May releases. The most recent commentary circulating online, including a YouTube summary of Deadline’s final tracking, said presales were broadly in line with an $80m-plus four-day debut, which helps explain why the market remains anchored near the 80% region rather than trading as a near-lock. The main downside risk is simple underperformance versus the higher analyst range; the main upside is that Memorial Day frames can still over-index if family turnout is strong and theatre capacity is well utilised.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

We track "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.