Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Platform comparison

Market context

Ships are currently barely threading the Strait of Hormuz, with daily transit calls hovering near 12, a fraction of the pre-conflict baseline of 75–125. The crowd-implied probability of traffic returning to a 7-day moving average of 60 or above by the end of June sits at 0%, reflecting the stark reality that reaching this threshold requires a fivefold surge from current levels. This near-total dismissal of a recovery contrasts sharply with odds on Polymarket, where traders assign a 60% chance to the event, and diverges from the Rand Forecasting Initiative’s distribution, which places 37% probability on the peak 7-day average falling between 75 and 100 for the remainder of 2026 [1][3].

Historically, the Strait has seen extreme volatility, with the 7-day average peaking at 107.3 in late February 2026 before collapsing to a low of 2.7 in the subsequent disruption [1]. Comparable cases, such as the Suez Canal’s prolonged stagnation below 60 calls, suggest that once transit drops to single digits, recovery is neither swift nor guaranteed without a definitive geopolitical resolution [2]. The current 0% market probability aligns with the analyst consensus that the fivefold increase needed is implausible within the remaining timeframe, yet the Polymarket divergence hints at a potential mispricing if traders anticipate a sudden de-escalation.

Traders must monitor IMF PortWatch’s daily updates for any shift in the 7-day moving average, which currently sits at 13.14 as of late June [5]. Key catalysts include official announcements regarding the recent shipping disruptions and tanker traffic flows at risk, as mapped by PortWatch [6]. A recent report from Macromicro confirms that daily transit trade volume remains suppressed, reinforcing the need for a major policy shift to trigger the required surge [7]. Without such a catalyst, the 0% probability appears factually grounded, as the data shows no immediate trajectory toward the 60-call threshold.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.