Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
0% | 100% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
0% | 100% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Market context
Ships are currently barely threading the Strait of Hormuz, with daily transit calls hovering near 12, a fraction of the pre-conflict baseline of 75–125. The crowd-implied probability of traffic returning to a 7-day moving average of 60 or above by the end of June sits at 0%, reflecting the stark reality that reaching this threshold requires a fivefold surge from current levels. This near-total dismissal of a recovery contrasts sharply with odds on Polymarket, where traders assign a 60% chance to the event, and diverges from the Rand Forecasting Initiative’s distribution, which places 37% probability on the peak 7-day average falling between 75 and 100 for the remainder of 2026 [1][3].
Historically, the Strait has seen extreme volatility, with the 7-day average peaking at 107.3 in late February 2026 before collapsing to a low of 2.7 in the subsequent disruption [1]. Comparable cases, such as the Suez Canal’s prolonged stagnation below 60 calls, suggest that once transit drops to single digits, recovery is neither swift nor guaranteed without a definitive geopolitical resolution [2]. The current 0% market probability aligns with the analyst consensus that the fivefold increase needed is implausible within the remaining timeframe, yet the Polymarket divergence hints at a potential mispricing if traders anticipate a sudden de-escalation.
Traders must monitor IMF PortWatch’s daily updates for any shift in the 7-day moving average, which currently sits at 13.14 as of late June [5]. Key catalysts include official announcements regarding the recent shipping disruptions and tanker traffic flows at risk, as mapped by PortWatch [6]. A recent report from Macromicro confirms that daily transit trade volume remains suppressed, reinforcing the need for a major policy shift to trigger the required surge [7]. Without such a catalyst, the 0% probability appears factually grounded, as the data shows no immediate trajectory toward the 60-call threshold.
Methodology
This page reviews Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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