# of views of next MrBeast video on week 1?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

MrBeast’s next upload on his main YouTube channel will be judged on how many views it collects over its first seven days, with the payout tied to the platform’s own view counter. The current crowd-implied probability of a top-band outcome is 0% YES, but that sits against a market that is effectively looking for whether the video clears a very high weekly bar rather than merely posting a large opening day. Recent reference points suggest the scale remains enormous: his previous releases have regularly crossed the tens of millions within days, and markets on his day-one performance have tended to cluster around the 30–40 million view range rather than the extreme ends. That makes the present 0% line look more like a lack of active demand in this specific contract than a settled view that a weak week is impossible.

For traders, the main catalysts are timing and format. The market only resolves on the first full video uploaded after creation, so any delay in publishing, a change in upload cadence, or a shift towards a different type of main-channel video can move the bracket materially. A scheduled teaser, a collaborator reveal, or a unusually large title-thumbnail push would matter because week-one view totals on MrBeast videos are heavily driven by launch momentum and recommendation pickup. Coverage from YouTube analytics trackers such as Viewstats has recently shown his channel remaining at exceptional scale, with projected views still far above any normal creator baseline, but the exact bracket here will depend on whether the next upload lands as a broad-appeal spectacle or a narrower concept. Prediction markets and sportsbook-style lines can diverge sharply on this sort of contract when liquidity is thin; in practice, the crowd price should be read alongside the historical view trajectory rather than as a standalone forecast.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews # of views of next MrBeast video on week 1? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.