Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Best Prediction Markets UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
73% | 27% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
73% | 27% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Spider-Man: Brand New Day | 73% |
| Avengers: Doomsday | 16% |
| Toy Story 5 | 5% |
| The Odyssey | 2% |
| The Super Mario Galaxy Movie | 1% |
| Wicked: For Good | 0% |
| Wuthering Heights | 0% |
| Scream 7 | 0% |
| Michael | 0% |
| Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu | 0% |
| The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping | 0% |
| Dune: Messiah | 0% |
| Project Hail Mary | 0% |
| Jumanji 3 | 0% |
| Minions & Monsters | 0% |
| Movie D | 0% |
| Movie E | 0% |
| Movie F | 0% |
| Movie G | 0% |
| Movie H | 0% |
| Movie I | 0% |
| Movie J | 0% |
| Movie K | 0% |
| Movie L | 0% |
| Movie M | 0% |
| Movie N | 0% |
| Movie O | 0% |
| Other | 0% |
Market context
The real-world event driving this contract is the race for the highest domestic calendar gross in 2026, measured strictly by Box Office Mojo’s “Gross” column for films released between 1 January and 31 December 2026. Current data shows *The Super Mario Galaxy Movie* leading with $429.8 million domestically, followed by *Michael* at $429.8 million (though worldwide figures suggest it trails slightly), and *Toy Story 5* entering the summer window. The prediction market’s implied probability of 0% for any specific outcome reflects the extreme uncertainty of a full-year forecast with only half the calendar elapsed and major releases like *Project Hail Mary* and *The Devil Wears Prada 2* still in early or mid-campaign phases.
Historical precedents from 2024 and 2025 show that April releases often dominate the annual gross if they secure massive global momentum, as seen with *Inside Out 2* and *Dune: Part Two*. However, summer blockbusters can overturn early leaders if they achieve sustained domestic performance, a pattern evident in 2023 when *Barbie* and *Oppenheimer* surged post-June. With *The Super Mario Galaxy Movie* already crossing $747 million globally and holding the top domestic spot, it remains the strongest candidate, yet its lead is not insurmountable given the strength of *Michael* and the upcoming *Toy Story 5* release on 19 June.
Traders should monitor weekly domestic box office updates, particularly the performance of *Toy Story 5* during its first two weeks, and any shifts in *Michael*’s trajectory as it approaches its mid-May peak. A recent YouTube preview from Dan! confirms *The Super Mario Galaxy Movie* as the current frontrunner, but also highlights *Project Hail Mary* as a potential challenger if its March release gains renewed traction. Key dependencies include the absence of major delays, the success of holiday-season releases, and whether *The Devil Wears Prada 2* can outperform expectations in its late-summer window. Any divergence between sportsbook lines and prediction-market odds will likely stem from differing assumptions about domestic versus worldwide performance, with analysts increasingly favouring *The Super Mario Galaxy Movie* as the safest bet.
Methodology
This page reviews Highest grossing movie in 2026? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade Highest grossing movie in 2026? on Best Prediction Markets UK
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
Open live market →