Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Platform comparison

Market context

Israel’s next government will be determined by the parliamentary election scheduled for 27 October 2026, and this market resolves to the person formally sworn in as prime minister afterwards rather than any caretaker arrangement. That makes it a coalition-formation trade as much as an election trade: the leading vote-winner may still lose if they cannot assemble a majority in the Knesset. [11][1]

Across venues, the price action points to a split between the incumbent and the main challenger. The live prediction-market print on Polymarket shows Benjamin Netanyahu around 33%, while a related market feed on Perplexity shows Gadi Eizenkot at about 51.6% and Netanyahu at 32.5%, with Preddy and Oracly broadly similar in placing Eizenkot first and Netanyahu second. [3][7][13] That divergence is meaningful: sportsbook-style pricing and market-implied probabilities are not perfectly aligned, but the consensus across prediction venues is that Eizenkot is favoured, while analyst-facing commentary has also highlighted his surge as the strongest challenger to Netanyahu. [4][5] For context, one recent poll cited by JNS found Netanyahu “best suited” for the job by 53.3% to Eizenkot’s 26.5%, which underlines that name recognition and perceived fitness do not map neatly onto outright probability of becoming prime minister. [8]

Traders should watch three catalysts: the final election date and any early call, coalition arithmetic after the vote, and whether Netanyahu’s legal and political position affects his ability to command a majority. Reuters reported in late June that Eizenkot was surging in polls and could oust Netanyahu, which is the sort of press that can reset expectations quickly if followed by further polling strength or alliance signals. [5] Naftali Bennett remains a live alternative in some market feeds, but current pricing puts him well behind the top two, so any meaningful narrowing would likely require a clear bloc-assembly path rather than a simple popularity bump. [3][7][9]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

What are the best prediction markets for UK traders in 2026?

For UKGC-regulated markets: Betfair Exchange (sports, politics) and Smarkets (sports, politics, lower commission than Betfair). For broader global event prediction: Polymarket (deepest liquidity, 0% fee, USDC settlement). For US-regulated option: Kalshi (USD, limited UK payment options). Most serious UK traders use a combination of Betfair for regulated sports and Polymarket for broader markets.