Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Platform comparison

Market context

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is still far below normal, with IMF PortWatch data used by the market requiring a 7-day average of at least 60 transit calls to settle Yes. The current crowd-implied probability is 34% for a return to normal by 30 June, which is higher than the bleak shipping data but still implies the market sees a better-than-even chance of disruption lasting into July. Recent reporting from USNI said commercial transits were at their lowest level since Operation Epic Fury started, with the route running at less than 10% of pre-conflict traffic and tanker and oil markets needing at least until September to normalise. That sits uneasily against a small number of upbeat diplomatic headlines, suggesting a wide gap between headline optimism and actual vessel movements.

For traders, the key catalyst is not rhetoric but whether shipping schedules and carrier behaviour recover quickly enough to lift the IMF series. Axios reported on 27 April that Iran had offered a new proposal to reopen the strait, and associated coverage said oil prices briefly eased, but shipping through Hormuz was still described as near-halted. Any agreement involving the US, Iran, or regional naval de-escalation would matter only if it translates into more daily transits by container, tanker, and bulk vessels. With only six weeks left in the settlement window, the odds implied by this contract look more cautious than a pure headline read, and more aligned with shipping analysts than with the occasional market bounce on ceasefire talk.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4

Methodology

This page reviews Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

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On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

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