Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu are set to discuss Iran’s nuclear programme and Gaza ceasefire terms if they meet in person before July 2026, a scenario currently priced at just 1% by the crowd. The low implied probability reflects the absence of any announced schedule for a joint encounter since their last meeting on 11 February 2026, despite Netanyahu’s sixth planned US visit this year focused on Tehran [1][2].

Historically, the two leaders have met six times since Trump resumed his presidency in January 2025, with Iran consistently dominating the agenda [2]. Their most recent encounter occurred at Mar-a-Lago in February 2026, shortly before the US and Israel jointly struck Iranian nuclear sites [6]. Previous meetings included an impromptu White House session when the US restarted Iran nuclear talks, and a UN General Assembly bilateral in New York where both stressed countering Iran’s regional influence [10][11]. The 1% price suggests traders view a seventh meeting as unlikely within the remaining seven months, given no public indication of coordination.

Traders should monitor Netanyahu’s confirmed US trip this week, any White House visit announcements, and Trump’s schedule around key Iran diplomacy milestones. A recent Reuters report notes Netanyahu is scheduled to meet Trump on Wednesday to deliberate on reviving US–Iran nuclear discussions, though this refers to a February 2026 meeting already completed [2]. Watch for official statements from the Trump White House or Netanyahu’s office confirming a new in-person encounter, as well as shifts in US–Iran indirect talks that could prompt a high-level meeting. Any announcement of a joint press event or bilateral at Mar-a-Lago would be a decisive catalyst.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Will Trump meet with Netanyahu by 2026? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.