Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz, a 54-nautical-mile chokepoint between Iran and Oman, remains one of the world's most strategically sensitive waterways. Approximately one-third of global maritime petroleum trade passes through it annually. The question of which countries will deploy warships through this passage by end-July 2026 hinges on regional tensions, naval posturing, and freedom-of-navigation operations. The 5% implied probability suggests traders view such transits as unlikely within the next 18 months, though the definition's breadth—encompassing military cargo and support vessels alongside combat ships—creates settlement ambiguity that may influence pricing.

Historical precedent offers limited guidance for this specific framing. The United States, United Kingdom, and France have conducted freedom-of-navigation operations through the strait in recent years, whilst Iran has periodically closed or threatened closure during escalations. Between 2019 and 2022, multiple naval incidents and tanker seizures elevated transit risks substantially, yet formal warship transits by Western powers continued. The current 5% probability implies either a stable status quo or trader scepticism about major power involvement over the next 18 months.

Catalysts to monitor include escalations in Israeli-Iranian tensions, shifts in US policy towards Iran following the 2024 election cycle, and any new incidents involving commercial shipping. Recent reports from Reuters and regional naval observers suggest no imminent large-scale operations are scheduled. The low probability also reflects that most major naval powers have alternative routes and limited incentive for deliberate Hormuz transits absent acute crisis. Traders should track announcements from US Central Command and Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps communications for signals of operational intent.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Best Prediction Markets UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.