US and Iran sign an agreement by 2026?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The question hinges on whether Washington and Tehran will execute any binding written agreement before the end of July 2026. The 83% implied probability reflects market confidence in a deal materialising within the next eighteen months, though the specificity requirement—any agreement, not necessarily a comprehensive nuclear accord—broadens the settlement criteria considerably. A limited arrangement on prisoner exchanges, sanctions relief for specific sectors, or even a technical memorandum could satisfy the terms, provided both sides formally sign.

Historical precedent offers mixed signals. The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) took roughly two years of intensive negotiation before signature, whilst the 1981 Algiers Accords on hostage release were concluded in weeks. More recently, the Biden administration's indirect talks through Oman in 2022 failed to produce a signed document, though they demonstrated willingness to engage. The Trump administration's maximum-pressure approach and subsequent withdrawal from the JCOPA in 2018 created a five-year gap in formal US-Iran agreements. Current market pricing suggests traders assess the probability of *some* agreement as substantially higher than the likelihood of a full nuclear deal restoration.

Key catalysts include statements from Iran's new government following its September 2024 presidential transition, any shift in US policy post-election cycles, and developments in regional tensions affecting negotiating leverage. The International Atomic Energy Agency's quarterly reports on Iranian nuclear activities typically influence diplomatic momentum. Traders should monitor announcements from the Swiss government, which has historically mediated US-Iran talks, and watch for signals from European signatories to the JCOPA regarding their own engagement strategies.

Methodology

We track US and Iran sign an agreement by 2026? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets UK?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.