Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday?

Platform comparison

Market context

Iran has recently attacked commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting the United States to demand a public, official commitment from Tehran to cease all such aggression before negotiations proceed. With the settlement window closing today, the market’s 2% implied probability for a formal Iranian pledge reflects the stark reality that Tehran views control of the strait as essential leverage, refusing to relinquish it without concrete guarantees.

Historical precedents suggest that Iranian declarations on Hormuz are typically conditional or tactical rather than absolute policy shifts. In past crises, Tehran has permitted “non-hostile” transit while explicitly excluding US and Israeli-linked vessels, or threatened closure as a retaliatory first step rather than issuing blanket non-aggression guarantees. This pattern of ambiguous, selective access aligns with the current low probability, as a declarative, unambiguous commitment to never attack any ship remains outside Iran’s established diplomatic behaviour.

Traders should monitor the outcome of the Oman talks led by Vice President JD Vance, where the US insists Iran pledge to stop firing on commercial ships as a prerequisite for progress. Recent reports confirm Washington is demanding a public statement guaranteeing the strait is open and vessels will not be targeted [9]. Any qualifying announcement must be a clear, declarative statement of present or future policy from an authorised Iranian representative; without such an explicit declaration before 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to “No”.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Best Prediction Markets UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.