Highest temperature in NYC on June 9?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 9 June 2026 will determine the settlement band for this contract. Historical June temperatures at LaGuardia range from lows around 65°F to highs exceeding 90°F, with a median high of approximately 79°F. The 0% crowd-implied probability suggests traders are pricing in either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or minimal liquidity across alternative ranges. Cross-platform comparison reveals sparse activity on this contract relative to broader weather derivatives, with sportsbooks offering no direct equivalent and analyst consensus largely absent from public forecasting models.

June weather patterns in the New York metropolitan area typically reflect early-summer conditions influenced by Atlantic moisture and subtropical air masses. The National Weather Service's seasonal outlook for June 2026 remains unavailable until late spring, though historical volatility in daily highs during this month—ranging 15–20°F between consecutive days—suggests meaningful uncertainty persists. Traders should monitor the emergence of long-range forecasts from the Climate Prediction Center in the weeks preceding settlement, as these often shift market expectations materially. The settlement window closes at noon UTC on the day itself, compressing the final adjustment period compared to markets resolving after full daily observation.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on June 9? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Best Prediction Markets UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets UK?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.