US-Iran deal text released by 2026?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 14 June 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, with a signing ceremony scheduled for 19 June. This market tests whether any portion of the agreement text becomes publicly available by 1 July 2026. The 90% implied probability reflects strong expectations that at least partial disclosure will occur within the thirteen-day window, either through official government release, leaked documents, or media reporting of substantive terms.

Historical precedent suggests high disclosure likelihood for major US-Iran agreements. The 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) saw its full text released publicly within days of finalisation, with both the US State Department and Iranian government publishing versions. Similarly, the 1981 Algiers Accords resolving the hostage crisis had their terms disclosed immediately. However, diplomatic agreements occasionally remain confidential during initial phases—the Trump administration's 2020 Abraham Accords saw delayed full-text publication, though key terms emerged through official statements and media analysis within weeks. The current market window extends only to 1 July, creating a compressed timeframe compared to historical patterns.

Traders should monitor official announcements from the US State Department and Iranian Foreign Ministry for scheduled disclosure dates. Media reporting on agreement contents will likely precede formal text release; major outlets including Reuters and AP have demonstrated capacity to obtain and publish substantive excerpts from confidential diplomatic documents. The signing ceremony on 19 June represents a critical juncture—post-signature disclosure typically accelerates as both parties move toward ratification processes requiring legislative or parliamentary review, which generally demands public access to agreement terms.

Methodology

We track US-Iran deal text released by 2026? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Best Prediction Markets UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Best Prediction Markets UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Best Prediction Markets UK?

Zero. Best Prediction Markets UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Best Prediction Markets UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.